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The authors use copious amounts of data ... to make the compelling case that any well-informed person should have seen the Great Recession coming. The essence of their book is that while financial crises come in different varieties, they are not mysteriously born of undersea earthquakes, but frequently occurring events that can be spotted and even controlled if politicians and regulators know what to look for. -- Devin Leonard New York Times Reinhart and Rogoff have compiled an impressive database, which covers eight centuries of government debt defaults from around the world. They have also collected statistics on inflation rates from every country where information is available and on banking crises and international capital flows over the past couple of centuries. This lengthy historical study gives what they call a 'panoramic view' of the unending cycle of boom and bust, showing how claims that 'this time is different' are invariably proven wrong... This Time Is Different doesn't simply explain what went wrong in our most recent crisis. This book also provides a roadmap of how things are likely to pan out in the years to come... This Time Is Different is an important addition to the literature of financial history. -- Edward Chancellor Wall Street Journal Professor Rogoff and his longtime collaborator Carmen Reinhart ... know more about the history of financial crises than anyone alive. The pair have just published their broad survey of financial crises, This Time is Different. In an era when most 'analysts' rely on maybe 30 or 40 years' worth of financial history--and then only that of the U.S.--the authors' knowledge of financial crises and government bond defaults going back to the Spanish empire and before offers a richer perspective. -- Brett Arends Wall Street Journal [E]ssential reading ... both for its originality and for the sobering patterns of financial behaviour it reveals. Economist The four most dangerous words in finance are 'this time is different.' Thanks to this masterpiece by Carmen Reinhart at the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard, no one can doubt this again... The authors have put an immense amount of work into collecting the data financial institutions needed if they were to have any chance of making quantitative risk management work. -- Martin Wolf Financial Times Everyone working on economic policy should own This Time is Different and open it for a bracing blast of sobriety when things seem to be going well. -- Greg Ip Washington Post [A] fine new history of financial debacles. -- Daniel Gross Newsweek Wouldn't it be nice to have $1,000 for every time a pundit proclaims an era of endless prosperity, consigning booms and busts to the dumpster of history? The next time you hear that canard (and you will) pour yourself a single malt and dip into Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff's landmark study, This Time Is Different. Wherever you open the book, you'll find proof that debt-fueled expansions have ended in financial ruin for hundreds of years... The result is a visual history laid out in beguilingly simple graphs and tables, making the book both definitive--a must read for professors and investors--and accessible to a wider audience. -- James Pressley Bloomberg News Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have delivered a powerful and eloquent statement... Reinhart and Rogoff have done an extraordinary job in putting together statistics on government debt--a task that economic historians should have done long ago but shied away from because of the difficulties of defining 'government', which is often complex and multi-layered. -- Harold James The American Interest Unlike prior narrative accounts of market panics from such finance writers as Charles Kindleberger and Edward Chancellor, Reinhart and Rogoff give us a data-driven study that is global in sweep but also a model of clarity. The authors package their notably nonhysterical analysis of the latest crisis in a large, self-contained section of the book inviting harried readers to skip right ahead to it. -- Daniel Akst CNNMoney.com A tour de force of quantitative analysis covering financial crises affecting 66 countries over the past 800 years, the book identifies pre-crisis patterns that recur with eerie consistency. This Time is Different is a must-read for anyone on the lookout for canaries in coal mines. Barron's This is certainly one of the must-read books of the year. -- Arnold Kling Econlog.com Rogoff and Reinhart ... provide an eye-opening look at the cycles of boom and bust and how governments deal with those cycles. Arkansas Business [A] valuable new book. Idaho Statesman Having studied mountains of economic data during the past eight centuries, the authors insightfully point out the highly repetitive nature of financial crises resulted from a dangerous mix of hubris, euphoria and amnesia. Shanghai Daily
 
内容简介：
从中世纪的货币流通到今天的次贷危机，66个国家和地区，800年金融史跌宕起伏，这次真的不一样吗？
历史不会重复自己，但会押着同样的韵脚——马克·吐温
通过全新数据揭示国际货币的过去、现在和未来
在第二章中，我们简要勾勒了本书的背景，描述了公司、银行和政府持有外汇余额（存放于外国金融中心的、以外国货币计价的银行存款和证券）做法的缘起，以及从19世纪晚期至第一次世界大战前国际货币和金融市场的整体轮廓。接着，第三章讲述了故事的下一阶段，从第一次世界大战爆发至20世纪20年代初，从1910年哲基尔岛会议为成立美联储及美元国际化进程打下基础，到1922年热那亚会议上各方就转向以外汇为基础的货币和金融体系达成一致。
第四章至第六章提出了20世纪二三十年代储备货币的新证据、同时期贸易融资活动所使用的货币情况以及长期国际投资中使用的媒介货币情况。这一部分是支持“?新观点?”的核心证据。
第七章至第十一章是现代国际货币的故事。第七章描述了从第二次世界大战结束至21世纪初不同国家的货币在国际储备货币中重要性的相对变化，举例说明了网络递增回报效应、源自其他因素的持续性（如习惯和传统）以及储备货币发行国政策等因素的重要性不断发生着变化。第八章和第九章举了两个能够为未来指明方向的例子。第八章重点关注第二次世界大战后外国持有英镑作为外汇结存的情况，以及英国政府为管控其影响力逐渐衰落的国际货币所付出的努力。第九章讨论了日元试图成为国际货币的失败经历。它研究了日本当局努力推动日元国际化的尝试并讨论了为何这些尝试以失败告终。
这两则案例研究间接地回应了以下两个问题：欧元区和中国能否成功使其货币国际化？欧元和人民币是否可能成为美元旗鼓相当的对手？它们也提出了以下问题：关于货币国际化的先决条件，历史能给我们提供哪些答案？美国应当如何应对竞争对手的崛起，又应当如何管控美元国际主导地位逐步丧失的情况？我们在第十章和第十一章中对这些问题进行了讨论，这两章也分别研究了欧元和人民币成为国际货币的前景。
第十二章总结研究了欧元和人民币的国际化对美元与世界经济的总体影响。

作者简介：
卡门 M. 莱因哈特（Carmen M. Reinhart）
马里兰大学经济学教授。与人共同主编了《21世纪首次全球金融危机》一书，经常为国际货币基金组织和世界银行授课。
肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth S. Rogoff）
哈佛大学经济学教授、Thomas D. Cabot公共政策教授。《国际宏观经济学基础》的作者之一，美国国家公共广播、《华尔街日报》和《金融时报》特约评论员。

目录：
目　录
译者序
前言
致谢
绪论
第一部分　金融危机入门
第1章　危机的类型和标识 /2
第2章　债务不耐：连续违约的根源 /18
第3章　一个基于长期视角的全球金融危机数据库 /31
第二部分　主权外债危机
第4章　债务危机的理论基础 /46
第5章　外债主权违约的周期 /61
第6章　历史上的外债违约 /78
第三部分　被遗忘的国内债务与违约史
第7章　国内债务和违约的程式化事实 /94
第8章　国内债务：解释外债违约和严重通货膨胀缺失的一环 /108
第9章　国内债务违约和外债违约：谁更严重，谁更重要 /117
第四部分　银行危机、通货膨胀和货币危机
第10章　银行危机 /128
第11章　通过货币减值的违约：“?旧世界?”的偏爱 /157
第12章　通货膨胀与现代货币危机 /162
第五部分　美国次贷危机和第二次大紧缩
第13章　美国次贷危机：一个跨国的历史比较分析 /182
第14章　金融危机的后果 /200
第15章　次贷危机的国际视角：是危机传染还是共同因素冲击 /215
第16章　金融危机的综合度量 /222
第六部分　我们从中学到了什么
第17章　关于早期预警、国家升级、政策应对及人性弱点的思考 /248
数据附录 /263
参考文献